Closed loop: The disruption of electricity and fuel distribution
Wednesday May 4, 2016
The new range of electric cars are priced in the $35,000-$40,000 bracket. Solar PV and home energy storage costs are falling fast. A green, closed loop of self-generation and consumption is on offer that could meet not just an individual’s electricity needs, but their transport requirements as well. These early adopters can opt out of the megalithic supply and distribution chains of the oil and electric industries. It may not quite add up yet, but for many, the difference is so small it doesn’t matter. Transportation and electricity provision are two fairly distinct markets, each with their own supply chains and market structures. Liquid fuels are distributed by ships, pipes, trains and trucks, electricity by wires. Both operate on a massive scale. Renewables have disrupted these megalithic industries. They have done so in many ways, but there are three that are particularly important: the reversal of the trend towards scale, the move behind the meter to allow self-generation, and the simplification of technology. This is a powerful combination because it makes electricity generation accessible to the consumer. But it also means that if electricity becomes a means of transport then it puts transport fuel behind the meter (or pump) as well. Solar panels are the perfect embodiment of this: they are small, safe, modular and require no operation and maintenance. They cut through the barriers to market entry of cost and expertise that formerly dominated the electricity industry, representing both a huge addition of capacity and a mobilization of capital which is not controlled by the electricity industries’ traditional incumbents. This has given rise to the much-documented ‘utility death spiral.’ This is the idea that as consumers source less electricity from the grid, the unit cost of maintaining the grid for its remaining users increases, creating an unsustainable spiral of rising costs. These are passed from the grid operator to generators and consumers, increasing the incentive to disengage. It is a vicious circle in which small-scale generation becomes increasingly viable as it escapes the common costs of distribution. However, the potential for change goes even further. Power is about to be transferred in part to the end user not just for electricity generation but for transportation. And it will rejuvenate or create a different set of major industrials — the original equipment manufacturer. The PV panel, battery and EV co...